If you’re holding out for 3% mortgage rates before buying in Plano, you’re not alone, but that wait may be longer than expected. Industry forecasts consistently show that those ultra-low rates were a rare exception, not something the market naturally returns to. Instead of waiting on a number that may never come back, buyers are finding success by adjusting their strategy to today’s 5–6% reality.
Why 3% Mortgage Rates Were an Exception
The ultra-low mortgage rates of 2020–2021 were not normal market conditions. They were created by a rare and temporary mix of events.
During the pandemic, the Federal Reserve aggressively cut rates and purchased massive amounts of mortgage-backed securities to keep the economy moving. Inflation was initially low, and lenders accepted slimmer profit margins just to keep credit flowing.
Today, inflation remains higher than pre-pandemic levels, and the Fed is no longer actively propping up mortgage markets at the same scale. That means lenders need higher yields to offset risk, making a return to 3% rates extremely unlikely.
What Experts Actually Expect for Mortgage Rates
Current forecasts indicate a gradual improvement, rather than a dramatic decline.
Most national housing economists and lenders project average 30-year fixed rates to hover in the low-to-mid 6% range through 2026. Even more optimistic outlooks suggest rates might dip into the high-5% range, but still remain far above pandemic lows.
In short, moving from 7% down to 5–6% is realistic. A move back to 3% is not part of any mainstream forecast.
Plano and DFW: Prices, Payments, and Market Reality
Plano buyers face a unique challenge: prices stayed relatively strong even as rates rose.
Plano’s median home price has stabilized in the low-to-mid $500,000s, typically around the $ 520,000–$ 540,000 range. While the broader DFW area offers lower entry points, Plano continues to command a premium due to strong schools, job access, and limited new construction.
Days on market have increased, and price growth has cooled, but Plano has largely avoided the sharp price drops seen in some high-construction suburbs. That makes waiting for both a major price crash and 3% rates a risky double bet.
What Plano Buyers Can Actually Control
Instead of chasing a rate the market isn’t offering, buyers can focus on strategies that work right now.
- Seller or builder concessions: Many DFW sellers and new-construction builders are again offering closing cost credits and rate buydowns.
- Temporary or permanent rate buydowns: Using points or seller credits can lower an interest rate into the low-6% or even high-5% range, depending on the program.
- Plan for a future refinance: If rates ease into the mid- or high-5% range, refinancing later can reduce payments, without waiting years for a 3% rate.
- Right-size location and price: Parts of east or central Plano, or nearby Collin and Dallas County areas, often provide better value while maintaining strong schools and commute options.
These levers, price, concessions, buydowns, and future refinancing, have real, immediate impact on affordability.
A Simple Reality Check for Plano Buyers
The key mindset shift is this: stop waiting for 3%, and start planning around 5–6%.
Most forecasts agree rates may slowly ease but are unlikely to return to historic lows. Plano’s market remains fundamentally strong, supported by demand, employment, and limited supply.
Buyers who adapt to today’s conditions, rather than waiting for a perfect scenario, often end up building equity sooner and gaining more long-term flexibility.
